Shirai Sayuri, Advisor for Sustainable Policies, Asian Development Bank Institute
Moderated by:
Claude Smadja, President, Smadja & Smadja Strategic Advisory, Switzerland

Just two months after his inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump has completely disrupted the whole economic and political scene in America. He has at the same time created havoc on the global economy through a flurry of new import tariffs affecting the closest allies of the US as well as its competitors and adversaries, shaking the whole geopolitical landscape by reversing – or at least putting into question – long standing alliances and reversing policies towards Russia while at the same time asserting territorial expansions goals towards Canada, Greenland and Panama that he claims to be willing to achieve by whatever means necessary. Reactions all over the world have been a combination of outrage, handwringing about how to react, difficulty of making the difference between what could be rhetorical intemperance and the assertion of raw imperialistic behavior, puzzlement about President Trump ultimate goals.

Choi Kenneth, Deputy Managing Editor, The Chosun Daily Newspaper / Director General, The Asian Leadership Conference, Republic of Korea
Fujisaki Ichiro, Former Japanese Ambassador to the United States
Goodman Matthew P., Director, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Machida Ado, President, HardRock Japan
Moderated by:
Fujii Akio, Executive Chair of Editorial Board Nikkei Inc.

There are many reasons to worry about volatility:

• In the equity market, 1. Negative risk appetite, 2. Recession fears 3. Impact on real economy
• In the bond market, 1. Volatility raises the risk premium; 2. Higher yields on government bonds impact valuation of all financial assets. 3. Impact on real economy
• In the FX market, 1. Changes in rate differentials, 2. Changes in international payments balances; 3. Changed trade patterns, import prices, inflation, and unemployment
• In the real economy, 1. Dampened “animal spirits” hurt both consumption and investment. 2. Weaker incentive to acquire new skills. 3. Slower capital accumulation. 4. Slower technology diffusion.

What can investors do about it? Diversify? or Hedge?

Fink Namoni, Chief Global Strategist, Nikko Asset Management
Momma Kazuo, Executive Economist, Mizuho Research & Technologies, Ltd.
Yamamoto Takenari, Managing Director S&P Global Japan
Moderated by:
Feldman Robert, Senior Advisor, Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities

During the end of December 2024 meeting between the foreign ministers of Japan and China the two parties agreed to hold a high-level economic dialogue and organize the Japan-China Security Dialogue to improve communication over security issues. This reflected an easing in the bilateral relationship marked by the meeting between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. However, long-standing tensions and disagreements on issues such as the East China sea remain unchanged between the two countries. So far, the bilateral economic interaction remains strong, with a total trade volume of US 288 billion dollars in 2024. Each of the two countries is one of the three most important markets for the other one, although Japanese investments in China have declined by 60% in the last ten years due, among other factors, to supply chain diversification.

• How is it possible to insulate the Japan-China business and economic relationship from the geopolitical tensions between the two countries? Are there initiatives at the government or corporate levels – on both sides which could contribute to that goal?
• How are the shocks and uncertainties created by the policies of the Trump administration on the global trade and economic scene impacting – or could possibly impact – the Japan-China economic relationship in the coming period?
• What is the potential for complementarity collaboration between the two countries – especially in which sectors?
• What could be the impact of the reshaping and diversification of global supply chains on the bilateral economic and business relationship?

Aoyama Rumi, Professor Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies & Director Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies, Waseda University
Hiroe Toshio, President, Member of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, SCREEN Holdings Co., Ltd.
Wang Henry Huiyao, Founder and President of Center for China and Globalization (CCG)
Xiang Bing, Dean, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business
Moderated by:
Claude Smadja, President, Smadja & Smadja Strategic Advisory, Switzerland

Japan and India have historically enjoyed cordial and fruitful relations with the Global Partnership between Japan and India established in 2000. The relation was regularly upgraded throughout the years with numerous meetings and agreements such as in 2015 with the joint statement by Prime Ministers Modi and Abe announcing “Japan and India Vision 2025 Special Strategic and Global Partnership” or in 2023, when the two nations held the presidency of the G7 and the G20 respectively, and agreed to work together to further develop Japan India relations. The trade volume between the two nations has increased steadily as well as Japanese FDI into India. Japanese corporations have been increasingly involved in India, not only as a market but also – in recent years – as a sourcing base for technology innovations to integrate in their products and services delivered globally.

• What role can India play in the context of the “China + 1” strategy that Japanese corporations are developing to mitigate the risks created by the US-China confrontation?
• What issues or challenges are Japanese corporations facing when setting operations or R&D centers in India?
• What possible technology innovation synergies can be developed between both countries, corporations, academic institutions and startups?
• What are Japanese corporations looking for in priority as they establish or develop a business relationship with India?

Patel Ketan, Co-Founder & CEO, Greater Pacific Capital, UK
Porté Thierry, Managing Director and Vice Chairman at JC Flowers. USA
Sharma Shishir, Partner, Dua Associates, India
Moderated by:
Claude Smadja, President, Smadja & Smadja Strategic Advisory, Switzerland

Almost a decade has elapsed since the ITO Review of Competitiveness and Incentives for Sustainable Growth, pointing at the the continuously low profitability of one of the most innovative countries in the world and setting a goal of an 8% ROE by enhancing the capital productivity improvement of corporate Japan, was made public in August 2014.
Since then, ROE has shown significant improvement, to reach 10%. However, the labor share has fallen, and employees have become poorer, while companies are stuck with excess cushions of cash. Out of Japanese households’ financial assets, 1,000 trillion yen (approx. 7 trillion USD) remain as chest deposits in people’s home.
In recent years, the increase in foreign investors (70% of trading volume) has contributed to the solid levels of stock prices, and it is difficult to say that the investment chain, which is supposed to create a virtuous cycle through corporate growth investment, is functioning.
In addition, there are 922 companies (50%) in the prime category and 934 (64%) in the standard category show a PBR of less than 10% (market capitalization below the total assets book value), so finally, two years ago, the Tokyo Stock Exchange issued a formal request to implement “management conscious of capital costs and stock prices.”

• Two years, let us observe its results and issues. What are the real factors that determine those companies who succeeded in reaching that goal and those who could not? What were the new undertakings through this enlightenment activity?
• Two practical examples of efforts and undertakings to enhancing corporate values; one by a large-cap company and another small- to mid- cap growth company.
• Foreign investors assessment of this TSE’s policy – Did they notice anything?
• Did the Japanese companies “earning power” truly improve? Do we feel that financial literacy has improved and corporate governance (such as reforms of boards) is progressing?
• How do we feel about the “dialogue with investors” and, in some cases, recent “confrontations with activists”?
• How is ESG related to enhancing corporate value? What perception do we have, including the time frame?
• What are the priority issues that Japanese companies must tackle in order to further enhance their corporate value?

Iwanaga Moriyuki, President & CEO, Tokyo Stock Exchange
Iwanaga Yasunori, Chief Responsible Investment Officer, Amundi Japan
Morikawa Tetsuji, President and Representative Director, Group CEO, Avant Group Corporation
Nagao Yutaka, Representative Director, Executive Officer and President, Yamato Holdings
Moderated by:
Kawahara Shigeharu, Representative, Kawahara Associates; Member of the Advisory Board, Hitotsubashi Financial Leadership Program, Hitotsubashi University

Lifting negative interest rates in March 2024 after 25 years of a very loose monetary policy was the first step from the Bank of Japan towards a gradual normalization of its policy. This has been followed by additional 25 bps interest rate increases at the end of last January, as well as by a reduction in JGB purchases. The core inflation forecast stands now at 2.5% for FY 2025, sustaining the basis for the tightening of monetary policy now in process. The expectation is for further interest rates increases during the fiscal year starting on 1st April. However, managing the further normalization of the country’s monetary policy will involve, among other elements, addressing the issue of the yen depreciation, achieving a reduction of inflation which has been a factor in the slump of domestic consumption.

• Can there be any forecast on where interest rates will stand at the end of FY 2025, to address the Yen depreciation and reduce inflation, or at least prevent an increase?
• After such a long period of negative interest rates what is the risk of negative effects of rising rates, for companies in some economic sectors which may prove to be vulnerable to such increases?
• What is your assessment of the ability of the BOJ to manage well the balancing act between the need for price stability and the potential risks of further rates hikes?
• What are the potential external or internal developments which could impact on – or even derail – the process of normalization of Japan’s monetary policy?

Angrick Stefan, Associate Director, Senior Economist Moody’s Analytics
Nakao Takehiko, Chairman of the Institute, Mizuho Research & Technologies, Ltd.
Nakaso Hiroshi, Chairman of the Institute, Daiwa Institute of Research
Moderated by:
Takita Yoichi, Finance Editor Nikkei

Roundtable Japan was started in 2005, and this year, we are celebrating our 20th Edition.
When we look back at the time of establishment: Japan, after its “lost decade” was in denial mode ―― turning its back to the rest of the world, and the government, as well as leading corporations, or even its citizens were all “inward looking” and had lost the dynamism it once had, as the aspiring global leader. However, the world did not turn its back on Japan, nor did it ignore Japan: the rest of the world needed Japan to exert its leadership. But the voices toward Japan from the rest of the world, expressing its expectations and requests had remained unheard, because there was no suitable platform to do so (such as in Davos). As there were fewer opportunities to do so. We wanted this newly created platform, to simply fill the gap. We wanted to create this roundtable to discuss Japan’s mid- to long- term future, from a truly global perspective, so that we could make the country’s future somewhat better. This mid- to long-term perspective was set to be 20 years, and this is why with this 20th Edition of our Roundtable, we have reached our initially set target term. We are grateful to all our supporters to have been able to reach this target term, through yearly meetings.
This special celebratory dinner will look back on Japan’s challenges 20 years ago, and on the expectations that the rest of the world was placing to Japan; we will then make an assessment as to how Japan had been able to deliver on these goals. Last but not least, we will propel ourselves toward the next twenty years, the new challenges that we are faced with and what is needed to overcome these challenges.
We are expecting our distinguished speakers to be joined by all participants in order to exchange candid and productive ideas.

Kamikura Takayuki, Acting President, The Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, Chairman, Imagineer Co., Ltd.

Koike Yuriko, Governor, Tokyo Metropolitan

Ishida Tateaki, Ishida Tateaki, Minister of the Environment

Asao Keiichiro, Minister of the Environment